The Effects of El Niño and the Upcoming Severe Weather Season
El Niño has been a buzz word lately in the news, especially in how it may affect the upcoming severe weather season. Many people who live in the Plains are concerned that there will be an increase in severe weather, specifically in the number of tornadoes. This comes primarily on the heels of the last El Niño episode of 2006-2007, where the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles had a record of 58 tornadoes during 2007!
El Niño is a periodic warming of surface ocean waters in the eastern tropical Pacific that results in a shift in thunderstorm development in the western Pacific Ocean farther east than the climatological normal. These conditions affect weather patterns around the world. El Niño episodes occur roughly every three to five years and can last up to 12 to 18 months. So just how does El Niño, which occurs so far away from the Panhandles, affect the weather across our area?
During this warm phase, the jet stream (which is a narrow belt of strong winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere that drive weather systems around the globe) gets displaced farther to the south. This pattern usually results in more opportunities for thunderstorms across the area, and therefore a greater likelihood to experience more severe weather than usual. It is important to note that El Niño does not necessarily increase the number of tornadoes. El Niño occurs on a large scale and does not take into account the amount of instability and moisture available at any given location, which is essential for thunderstorm development. As a result, storm systems may move too fast or too far north or south of the Panhandles, resulting in dry and windy conditions as they track across the area.
The latest outlook provided by the Climate Prediction Center states that El Niño conditions will persist through spring but are continuing to weaken and are expected to be neutral by summer. This correlates into enhanced probabilities of precipitation, as shown in the precipitation outlook from May through July.
The best way to be prepared for this severe weather season is to keep abreast of the latest forecasts from the National Weather Service.
